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Democrats gain control of last House seat in 2024 election, reducing Republican majority


Republicans will have a narrow majority in the House next year, with Democrats flipping one final seat in California, giving Republicans 220 House seats in the 2024 election. Due to this narrow majority, Republicans can lose just two votes on legislation, so they have little room for absences, internal fighting, or vacancies. With Democrats flipping nine Republican-held seats and Republicans flipping eight Democratic-held seats, it emphasizes the close fight for the House. This year, campaigns and outside groups spent over $1.1 billion on ads in House races, with Democrats outspending Republicans.

While Democrats found their down-ballot candidates performed better than Vice President Kamala Harris, Republicans will have a rare opportunity to pass major policy priorities through budget “reconciliation” in the new year. Speaker Mike Johnson and Republicans will face hurdles getting their reconciliation package to the finish line due to their fragile House majority. The reconciliation package could include renewing tax cuts, a tax exemption for income earned from tips, and lifting the cap on the state and local tax deduction.

Furthermore, Trump selecting House Republicans for his Cabinet and lawmaker resignations will also impact Johnson’s majority. With the potential resignations of Elise Stefanik and Mike Waltz, Johnson could be operating with just a one-seat majority. Special elections have been scheduled to replace the resigning lawmakers. The dynamics in the House will be complex, with a limited GOP majority and challenges in advancing Trump’s agenda through reconciliation.

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