The Islamic State has been showing increased activity in Syria, drawing in fighters and stepping up attacks, as reported by the United Nations and U.S. officials. While they are not as strong as they were in the past, there is a risk that the group could free thousands of fighters from prisons guarded by U.S.-backed Syrian Kurds.
The resurgence of the Islamic State would be detrimental to Syria’s chances of moving beyond dictatorship and could spread instability throughout the Middle East. With between 9,000 and 10,000 fighters detained in northeastern Syria, their escape would add to the group’s numbers and serve as a propaganda victory.
Experts warn that the Islamic State may exploit the end of the Assad government to revive its ability to carry out attacks. The U.S. has increased its military presence in Syria to combat the group, but President Trump has expressed skepticism about keeping troops in the country.
Although the initial signs of the new Syrian government acting against the Islamic State were positive, sectarian violence last month raised concerns about its control over forces. The Islamic State, while no longer holding significant territory, continues to spread its ideology through clandestine cells and regional affiliates.
The security of detention centers holding Islamic State fighters is precarious due to ongoing violence in the region. If the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces guarding these facilities are weakened by attacks from Turkish-backed militias, there is a potential for a prison escape that could further empower the extremist group.
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